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2014 em revista: Cisnes negros, cinzentos & 6 surpresas

6 surpresas nos mercados financeiros de acordo com a nossa escola mais os cisnes negros e cinzentos escolhidos por Constantin Gurdgiev.

Por Jorge Nascimento Rodrigues
© JNR, 2015

Os 5 riscos económicos para o final de 2012

Uma conjugação negativa pode juntar o disparo do preço do barril de petróleo e dos cereais com a recessão na Europa e o abrandamento do crescimento nos EUA e na China,

Texto ampliado de versão publicada no semanário português Expresso. (c) Jorge Nascimento Rodrigues, 2012

Available ENGLISH VERSION at LisWires (The Five Downside Risks for the end of 2012)

“The financialization of commodities has been the dominant factor“ (John Baffes)

Speculators rediscovered commodity markets. Prices are climbing again. The research of Dr. John Baffes, from the World Bank, unveils the factors behind the price movements in the last 30 years. A summary of the research and an interview with the author.
©janelanaweb.com, 2010

Wild Oscilations in oil prices

We must expect a period of high volatility in prices – difficult times for management and government ahead. «The coming phase will be chaotic and unpredictable.» An interview with the Italian Ugo Bardi.

O choque petrolífero ao contrário

Janelanaweb ouviu Rembrandt Koppelaar, editor de The Oil Drum, que avisa que o cartel tudo fará para impedir que os preços desçam abaixo dos 40 dólares. Isso seria o colapso de parte do sector, diz o analista holandês. Politicamente, nem a OPEP nem a Rússia o permitiria, apesar da crise económica pressionar para a continuação da baixa de preços.

The reverse oil shock

It’s temporary – but it’s a reverse oil shock. Peakists (analysts based on the peak oil model) were surprised with the swing – some of them continue completely bullish until the downtrend was sound evidence. From near $145 ($143.95, July 3) a barrel (Brent Spot price) just five months ago to $50 – the barrel got crazy. An interview with Rembrandt Koppelaar, editor of The Oil Drum