“The main reason why Asia is growing is that it is providing an explosive growth of brain power for the world. This brain power will deliver explosive innovations also”, says Kishore Mahbubani, Dean and Professor in the Practice of Public Policy, at Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, at the National University of Singapore. He is also a Faculty Associate for the Centre on Asia and Globalization. He graduated in Philosophy from the University of Singapore in 1971 and got a masters degree in Canada. He spent a year as a fellow at the Center for International Affairs at Harvard University in the 1990s. His professional career was diplomacy.

As a diplomat he worked with the Singapore Foreign Service from 1971 to 2004. One of his most important positions was in Washington DC and New York, where he served two stints as Singapore’s Ambassador to the United Nations and as President of the UN Security Council in January 2001 and May 2002. He serves in Boards and Councils of several institutions in Singapore, Europe and the US, including the International Institute for Strategic Studies Council, the Asia Society’s International Council, the Yale President’s Council on International Activities, and the Singapore-China Foundation – Scholarship Committee. He has published globally and his books generate a sound controversy.

His last book entitled The New Asian Hemisphere: the irresistible shift of global power to the East was published in New York in February 2008. His message is clear: For centuries, the Asians have been bystanders or even victims in world history. Now they are ready to become co-drivers.

In this interview readers can learn the ongoing global recession and the after-crisis through Asian eyes.

INTERVIEW

QUESTION: Do you think the present crisis enlarged the window of opportunity for the shift of geo-economic power and geopolitical power to Asia? Like the crises of the 1890s and the 1920’s (despite, paradoxically, of the great suffer in the US) opened the door to the emergence of the US as the great power, do you forecast a similar historical pattern in the aftermath of this crisis? The ongoing crisis helped to accelerate the irresistible shift you mention in your last book?

ANSWER: Yes! This crisis has helped to accelerate the irresistible shift of power I speak about in my book. There is no longer any question that the era of Western domination of world history is over. The west demonstrated enormous incompetence in this crisis. It will be hard for the West to claim the moral high ground on global challenges.

MAHBUBANI: “The critical mistake made by Western minds was a simple mistake. Once you stop conceiving failure, failure comes”

QUESTION: This financial crisis got by surprise many people around the world. During twenty years we heard that the business cycles were “domesticated”, that Great Depression no more, that we live in a ‘Great Moderation Era’. Do you think this crisis was inevitable? People in the East, despite the big fruits they got from the rent-seeking world financial system of the last 20 years, were more cautious?

ANSWER: Crises are always inevitable. We will never enter any period of history without crises. It was sheer hubris of Western policymakers and economists to believe that they could overcome the business cycle. The critical mistake made by Western minds was a simple mistake. Once you stop conceiving of failure, failure comes. This is what happened to the USA.

QUESTION: In what sense the Asian emergent countries seem more immune to this debacle? And why they can sort out faster from this mess than the others in the West?

ANSWER: Asian countries are not immune from any global crises. We live in a small interdependent world. All of us have to prepare for new challenges. Until now, the general assumption was that Western countries were better governed and better prepared for crises. Now we know that that was a false assumption. The Asian countries were better prepared. The West should now ask itself this question: how did this happen? The purpose of my book is to answer this question.

MAHBUBANI: “The question is not whether China is going to have a crisis. The question is whether China has the capability to overcome a crisis. So far, China has demonstrated that it has such capabilities.”

QUESTION: The export-led model of growth is dead or it can be reengineered?

ANSWER: The export-led model has suffered a great deal in this crisis but it is not dead. Indeed, the overall export volume of Asian countries will continue to grow, although the growth of Asian exports to USA and Europe will slow down. It is a good thing that the Asian countries are becoming both more self-reliant and more reliant on the Asian region to generate growth.

QUESTION: Is there a risk of overheating in China and of an economic crisis in the next ten years?

ANSWER: It is very unusual for any large country to enjoy 30 years of continuous economic growth. This has been China’s record so far. It would be perfectly normal for China to stumble once or twice during its economic growth. Hence, the question is not whether China is going to have a crisis. The question is whether China has the capability to overcome a crisis. So far, China has demonstrated that it has such capabilities.

QUESTION: The financial power will shift also from Wall Street and the City of London? Financial innovation can have a hot spot in the East?

ANSWER: As the Asian economies continue to grow fast, it is natural that the epicentre of global innovation in all fields will also shift to Asia. The main reason why Asia is growing is that it is providing an explosive growth of brain power for the world. This brain power will deliver explosive innovations also.

QUESTION: Do you think the G20 has better conditions to deal with the global problems?

ANSWER: The G20 is definitely an improvement over the G8, which should be shut down. However, the G20 will fail if it does not listen to the views and interests of the G192, all the member states of the UN. Ultimately, any stable world order has to be a democratic world order.

QUESTION: In your vision what’s the role of Singapore in the new global chess?

ANSWER: Singapore has a golden opportunity in the Asian century. It is the most modern city in Asia. It is also the most Asian among all modern cities. Hence, when the great Asian renaissance comes along and looks for a natural intellectual and spiritual capital, Singapore will play that role in the Asian century.